Kelly Criterion vs Flat Betting: When to Scale Stakes

Bankroll management separates casual gambling from disciplined betting. Two of the most common frameworks are flat betting and the Kelly Criterion. Flat betting means risking the same stake size on every wager, regardless of confidence or edge. Kelly scales stake size according to the perceived advantage, risking more when the edge is higher and less… Continue reading Kelly Criterion vs Flat Betting: When to Scale Stakes

Risk of Ruin: Calculating Survival at Different Edges

Every bettor, whether casual or professional, faces the same underlying question: how long can my bankroll survive the swings of variance? The answer lies in a concept called risk of ruin—the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll before variance swings back in your favor. It is not enough to have an edge; the size… Continue reading Risk of Ruin: Calculating Survival at Different Edges